Should I use historical target-values versus the log with Amazon Forecast?

0

If I am using Amazon Forecast, when should I use the actual values of the target-values in the historical data versus taking the logarithm of the value? I'm trying to get the most accurate forecast. Are there any general rules for the type of data or statistics that should drive this?

posta un anno fa232 visualizzazioni
1 Risposta
4
Risposta accettata

It usually depends on the data. Let's take a ordinary least squares (OLS) example. OLS regression assumes that the errors (residuals) are normally distributed. When they are positively skewed (long right tail) taking logs can sometimes help.

Also, sometimes the meaning of a change in a variable is represented better. For example, income. If you make $20,000 a year, a $5,000 raise is huge. If you make $200,000 a year, it is small. Taking logs reflects this:

log(20,000) = 9.90 log(25,000) = 10.12 log(200,000) = 12.20 log(205,000) = 12.23 

The difference between 10.12 and 9.90 is greater than 12.23 and 12.20

profile pictureAWS
ESPERTO
pechung
con risposta un anno fa
profile picture
ESPERTO
verificato un anno fa
profile pictureAWS
ESPERTO
verificato un anno fa
profile picture
ESPERTO
verificato un anno fa
profile picture
ESPERTO
verificato un anno fa

Accesso non effettuato. Accedi per postare una risposta.

Una buona risposta soddisfa chiaramente la domanda, fornisce un feedback costruttivo e incoraggia la crescita professionale del richiedente.

Linee guida per rispondere alle domande