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The sudden progress observed during the replication process could be due to factors such as the completion of copying over large tables, optimization mechanisms, fluctuations in resource allocation, efficient management of replication lag, and other external factors.
Yep that seems right, I was able to monitor this with two queries. One showed the rows after the initial copy was finished, the data size one was slowly increasing during the initial copy: https://gist.github.com/taylorhughes/ef76f2c8d5e15fb03c352f8fe5748ac8
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Update: It showed no visible progress for 36 hours, and then suddenly jumped from "79%" to "91%" then 98% then "Complete".
EBSByteBalance remains at zero. After the 36 hour period of very slowly declining free disk space, it jumped as the final table(s) came online in the new replica. OldestReplicationSlotLag on the original RDS instance had crept up to 20GB over that slow period, then dropped to near-zero and now remains near zero as the replication continues. In case anybody else runs into something similar, seems like it was actually working as it slowly copied over these large tables.